The Science of Certainty in the Most Uncertain Times

This article was initially posted in LinkedIn at this location. by Daniel Burrus, Technology Futurist Keynote Speaker, Business Strategist, and Disruptive Innovation Expert, August 8, 2024

An #election year is predictably upon us. What this means is that both the short-term #future and the long-term future are at high levels of uncertainty. Some of the bigger questions many business leaders are asking themselves are:

• Who will win the presidential election, and how will it affect the economy at large?
• What are the potential policy changes, and how might they impact different sectors like #banking, #energy and #healthcare?
• How might new regulations influence international trade relations and #consumer spending habits?

While the #economy fluctuates in a cyclical pattern, the potential for a leadership change in our country always brings with it high levels of uncertainty through every industry and for organizations and individuals alike. But let’s remember, as I just mentioned above: Cyclical Change is something we know we can leverage. Every four years, we will have an election for a new president.

So instead of putting your life and organization on pause to wait and see what happens, this is the perfect moment to put my Anticipatory Leader Strategies into motion. This type of uncertain climate is where they become even more valuable by providing a level of certainty that can help you not only prepare but also transform your business and industry.

It Takes a Mindset Shift

I have spent my career advising #Fortune500 companies and small businesses alike on my Anticipatory Organization® Model – using Hard Trends to identify disruptions before they disrupt, and identifying and pre-solving problems before they happen. In the 40+ years I have been strategically advising various organizations, I’ve noticed that those who struggle with disruption often do so because they believe that everything except death and taxes is uncertain. This mindset leads them to adopt a wait-and-see approach, preventing them from taking decisive action.

By focusing on what we are unsure of, we limit ourselves to a reactionary mindset, merely adjusting our strategies once it is far too late. But any strategy based on uncertainty has high risk, and the only way to decrease that risk is to discern the uncertain elements from the certain ones.

Trust me when I say that there is plenty of certainty during an election year!

Start with the Science of Certainty. Simply put, it is a methodology that differentiates Hard Trends, based on what I call future facts, from Soft Trends, which are based on assumptions that might happen. When we think of the future in terms of what we know for sure, it puts a powerful strategic tool in our pocket.

Cyclical Change Brings Certainty

As I discussed in another recent blog, change happens in cyclical and linear/exponential patterns. The presidential election is a cyclical change – it happens every four years, will continue to repeat, and brings with it increased uncertainty before the election. Linear/exponential changes are those that move in one direction, and if they are driven by technology such as AI, they move at exponential speeds. Knowing all this, what can you be certain about through this election year?

One example that comes to mind is that certain industries such as construction tends to slow down due to economic and regulatory uncertainty. On the other hand, thanks to technology-driven Hard Trends, industries that are leveraging technologies such as AI to increase efficiencies and productivity will continue to grow. We also know that Baby Boomers will continue to retire, and if they own a business, they will be looking to transition it to the next generation or sell it in the near future.

In these challenging economic and political times, it’s crucial to recognize the certainties that can drive your organization’s growth. When we increase our level of certainty, we feel empowered to make bold decisions that can transform our organization and even an industry.

Navigate Election Year Anxiety with Your Future-Focused Strategies

We cannot avoid the anxiety that an election year brings us, but we can certainly overcome it more easily. Many business leaders too frequently look to the short term, which often leads to cost cutting to prepare for what they think might happen. Way too many organizations simply brace themselves with a protect-and-defend mindset.

When you start identifying what you are certain about, you can use those Hard Trends to jump ahead by using an embrace-and-extend mindset.

Try not to be preoccupied with the news and political noise, and the uncertainties they bring forth. Try spending less time watching the news and political ads. Why? Bad news sells; good news doesn’t sell. And if there is no bad news to report, you’ll get the anniversary of bad news. And we all know political ads are not fact checked and are designed to make us mad. Instead, ask yourself: What am I certain about? What are the Hard Trends that are shaping the future and the related opportunities they bring? This is a good time to make a change.

Opportunity Does Not Take a Year Off

Instead of focusing on the uncertain future, I challenge you to focus on the Hard Trends that will happen. Use them to pre-solve future problems now by identifying the opportunity they present.

For example, technology-driven change is not slowing down just because there is an election. Take this time to start using new tools to transform your organization as others sit idly by, worrying about politics alone. Find efficient, affordable and productive ways to give customers what they need, regardless of the uncertainty of an election year. Strive to be a beacon of certainty as an Anticipatory Organization!

Trying to keep up with your competition is a fool’s game no matter what year it is, as there is no advantage in simply keeping up. The advantage comes in when you jump ahead with the confidence that comes from Hard Trends and the certainty they provide.

And remember: The sooner we recognize that identifying certainty in a seemingly uncertain world is a real game changer, the less stressful and worrisome the future becomes.

This election year and the next should be a time of positive growth, accelerated innovation and significance for all.

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